Policy feedback and path dependence in energy systems

Sebastian Pearson, Sonia

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doctoral thesis

Policy feedback and path dependence in energy systems

Zagreb: University of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics and Business, 2024. urn:nbn:hr:148:768584

Sebastian Pearson, Sonia

University of Zagreb
Faculty of Economics and Business
Department of Macroeconomics and Economic Development

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APA 6th Edition

Sebastian Pearson, S. (2024). Policy feedback and path dependence in energy systems (Doctoral thesis). Zagreb: University of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics and Business. Retrieved from https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:148:768584

MLA 8th Edition

Sebastian Pearson, Sonia. "Policy feedback and path dependence in energy systems." Doctoral thesis, University of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics and Business, 2024. https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:148:768584

Chicago 17th Edition

Harvard

Sebastian Pearson, S. (2024). 'Policy feedback and path dependence in energy systems', Doctoral thesis, University of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics and Business, accessed 22 March 2025, https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:148:768584

Vancouver

Sebastian Pearson S. Policy feedback and path dependence in energy systems [Doctoral thesis]. Zagreb: University of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics and Business; 2024 [cited 2025 March 22] Available at: https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:148:768584

IEEE

S. Sebastian Pearson, "Policy feedback and path dependence in energy systems", Doctoral thesis, University of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics and Business, Zagreb, 2024. Available at: https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:148:768584

Cite this item: https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:148:768584

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Metadata

Title	Policy feedback and path dependence in energy systems
Title (croatian)	Uvjetovanost politike energetskih sustava iskustvima prethodnih razdoblja
Author	Sonia Sebastian Pearson
Mentor	Jurica Šimurina (mentor)
Committee member	Tomislav Gelo (predsjednik povjerenstva)
Granter	University of Zagreb Faculty of Economics and Business (Department of Macroeconomics and Economic Development) Zagreb
Defense date and country	2024-03-11, Croatia
Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline	SOCIAL SCIENCES Economics General Economy
Universal decimal classification (UDC)	334 - Forms of organization and cooperation in the economy
Abstract	This dissertation examines the role of path dependence, the idea that historical events can lead to unpredictable outcomes, in the dynamics of energy transition. Sustainable energy transitions are slow complex processes that involve institutional and socio-cultural change. Divergence in national transition outcomes can be understood by analysing the long-run consequences of policy choices as a response to exogenous shocks such as oil price increases. The policy dynamics between government, industry groups specifically sustainable energy groups, creates a policy-industry feedback effect that accounts for the rate of progress of sustainable energy transition. The key idea is that renewable energy policy has a a positive effect on the growth of green industry. By targetting externalities, both positive and negative, policies constitute rules of the game and provide a basis for understanding cross-country differences in technology diffusion rates and the resulting differences in green industry development has a contagion effect. However, this dissertation asserts that policies are selected based on its beneficiaries. Policy feedback and interest group formation form a causal loop that influences policy making with ruling political parties using policies as a strategic tool to increase political support within industries. Sequential decision making and increasing returns in collective preferences then provide conditions for path dependence with feedback processes increasing power asymmetries between industries over time. Previous studies on the relationship between policy and industry have ignored potential causality or feedback. This dissertation tested for a Granger-causal relationship between renewable energy policy, the green industry and the brown industry in a panel dataset consisting of 36 OECD over the period 1970-2014 which covers key events such as the 1970’s oil crises, the adoption of United Nations Framework on Climate Change Convention in Rio in 1992, the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 and the commencement of trading in the EU-ETS in 2005. The regression results confirm the presence of feedback effects that sustain the dominance of fossil fuels while hindering the development of clean energy technologies. The analysis also shows the highly persistent nature of path-dependent processes regardless of technology type.
Abstract (croatian)	Ova disertacija ispituje ulogu iskustava prethodnih vremenskih razdoblja (engl: path dependence), ideje da povijesni događaji mogu dovesti do nepredvidivih ishoda, u dinamici energetske tranzicije. Tranzicije održive energije spori su složeni procesi koji uključuju institucionalne I socio-kulturne promjene. Razlike u ishodima nacionalne tranzicije mogu se razumjeti analizom dugoročnih posljedica političkih izbora kao odgovora na egzogene šokove kao što je povećanje cijene nafte. Dinamika politike između vlade, industrijskih grupa, posebno grupa za održivu energiju, stvara povratni učinak politike I industrije koji objašnjava stopu napretka tranzicije održive energije. Ključna ideja je da politika obnovljive energije ima pozitivan učinak na rast zelene industrije. Usmjeravanjem vanjskih učinaka, pozitivnih i negativnih, politike predstavljaju pravila igre i daju osnovu za razumijevanje razlika među zemljama u stopama širenja tehnologije, a rezultirajuće razlike u razvoju zelene industrije imaju učinak zaraze. Međutim, ova disertacija tvrdi da su politike odabrane na temelju svojih korisnika. Povratne informacije o politici (engl: policy feedback) i formiranje interesnih skupina čine uzročnoposljedičnu petlju koja utječe na kreiranje politike s vladajućim političkim strankama koje koriste politike kao strateški alat za povećanje političke podrške unutar industrija. Sekvencijalno donošenje odluka i sve veći prinosi u kolektivnim preferencijama tada osiguravaju uvjete za iskustva prethodnih vremenskih razdoblja s povratnim procesima koji povećavaju asimetriju snage između industrija tijekom vremena. Prethodne studije o odnosu između politike i industrije ignorirale su potencijalnu kauzalnost ili povratne informacije. Ova je disertacija testirala Grangerov uzročni odnos između politike OIE, zelene industrije i smeđe industrije u panel skupu podataka koji se sastoji od 36 OECDa tijekom razdoblja 1970.-2014. koji pokriva ključne događaje kao što su naftna kriza 1970- ih, usvajanje Okvirnog sporazuma Ujedinjenih naroda o klimatskim promjenamau Riju 1992., Kyotski protokol 1997. godine i početak trgovine u EU-ETS-u 2005. godine. Rezultati regresije potvrđuju prisutnost povratnih učinaka koji održavaju dominaciju fosilnih goriva dok ometaju razvoj tehnologija čiste energije. Analiza također pokazuje vrlo postojanu prirodu procesa iskustava prethodnih vremenskih razdoblja bez obzira na vrstu tehnologije.
Keywords
Keywords (croatian)
Language	english
URN:NBN	urn:nbn:hr:148:768584
Promotion	2024-03-28
Study programme	Title: Economics and Business Economics Study programme type: university Study level: postgraduate Academic / professional title: doktor/doktorica znanosti iz znanstvenog područja društvenih znanosti (doktor/doktorica znanosti iz znanstvenog područja društvenih znanosti)
Type of resource	Text
File origin	Born digital
Access conditions	Open access
Terms of use
Repository	REPEFZG
Created on	2024-04-03 16:07:44